On March 1, Djokovic lost to Roger Federer, 6-3, 7-5, in the finals in Dubai. Since then, he has not lost. He dropped a total of eight sets in winning Indian Wells (beating Federer in the final), Miami (Murray), Monte Carlo (Berdych), and Rome (Federer again). Before facing Nadal, he massacred No. 20 Richard Gasquet, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, in the fourth round.
The story of this match is going to be The End For Nadal. That's fine. But nobody else in the world could have made Nadal look like Djokovic did on Wednesday. Nadal knows he is not completely fit, and he has to defend more than he would prefer; it cost him a set in the fourth round against big-hitting Nebraskan Jack Sock, and it made him an underdog against Djokovic.
But from the opening points of the quarterfinals, he was on the defensive. He forfeited the court to Djokovic from the get-go, hoping instead that his defense could force errors or create eventual opportunities. That can work against a lot of guys; it doesn't work against this version of Djokovic.
Even during the tight first set, the hitting numbers were drastically in Djokovic's favor: Djokovic hit 19 winners to Nadal's nine and won 55 percent of first-set points. That tends to translate more to a 6-3 set than 7-5, and it hinted at what was to come.
- Second set winners: Djokovic 13, Nadal 4. Total points won: Djokovic 58 percent.
- Third set winners: Djokovic 13, Nadal 3. Total points won: Djokovic 68 percent.
Again, Nadal isn't in peak form, whatever that is for him at this point. But Djokovic has been playing as well or better than he did even in 2011, when he went 70-6 and won three slams. He can still grind and wear you down as well as ever -- he has closed out matches with sets of either 6-0 or 6-1 on 11 occasions in 2015, including in both the semis and finals of the Australian Open in January. But his offense is crippling, and his serve is improving. He won 86 percent of his service games during his 2011 run; he's winning 90 percent in 2015. And the best returner in the game is still the best returner in the game.
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